My thoughts ahead of World Cup 2018
With not long to go now until the world's eyes are on Russia, I thought I'd offer my own thoughts on who I think will be the front runners, stand out sides and inevitable flops of the 21st edition of the World Cup. I'll go through each group briefly giving my prediction on which two teams will emerge from each and go through the knockout rounds with the aid of FIFA's very own World Cup predictor. I won't claim to know everything about every player from each side, I won't even claim to have all the answers. It's just an opinion.
Group A
We'll start with Group A. The hosts Russia are joined by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Now regardless of ability or skill I honestly believe the hosts of any tournament always have an edge. Especially early on in the tournament. Some won't agree and that's absolutely fine. Russia aren't the side they once were in 2008 and probably won't make it through the group but they'll be backed by a huge support. They have a few decent players, the likes of Denis Cheryshev and Artem Dzyuba are familiar names plus keeper Igor Akinfeev. They will be resolute and steady and will provide a tough test for some of the more flair players in the group. Saudi Arabia will be hoping that they can capitalise on the hosts freezing and take a huge three points in the opening game. Only 2 of their squad play in Europe, that will no doubt be a small concern and recent changes in management there may hinder their chances. Egypt's hopes will no doubt all depend on the fitness of Mo Salah. An outstanding year for Liverpool with 32 Premier League goals and also helping his team reach the Champions League Final before leaving the field in Kiev with an injury. The instant fear was his World Cup was over before it had begun but reports suggest he will at least play one of the games. Logic dictates this will be the final group game against Saudi Arabia. Egypt may well need to win that to get through. Finally Luis Suarez and Uruguay will be hoping it's the Barcelona striker's feet that make the headlines and not his mouth (or teeth to be exact). Semi finalists in 2010 Uruguay present an interesting threat for the tournament. Not the strongest team but the favourite to win this group for certain. With Suarez and Cavani among their rank anything is possible.
My Prediction for Group A
- Uruguay
- Egypt
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
Group B
Group B provides one of the clashes of the group stage with Spain meeting rivals Portugal. The Spanish seem to have put the disappointment of four years ago behind them and are fancied to go far. Euro 2016 was an odd tournament for them. Promising in the group stage they were beaten by Italy in a great tactical battle. A new manager has seen Spain return ready to have a crack at winning a 2nd World Cup. Familiar names litter the squad with Iniesta, Ramos, Busquets and Pique all looking for major tournament number 4. Portugal come into this World Cup having won the Euros two years ago. They have always threatened without quite realising the dream at the World Cup and will be hoping the same spirit can match the talent throughout the team. Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to add the World Cup to his collection of silverware. Morocco provide an interesting prospect and with familiar names among the squad are no pushovers. Unlikely to get out of the group but a decent side none the less and Iran taking part in another world cup will also be a tough test no to be taken lightly. Another side with some ex Premier League names among the squad.
My Prediction for Group B
- Spain
- Portugal
- Morocco
- Iran
Group C
Group C sees one of the early favourites France take on Denmark, Australia and Peru. The French will be hoping to banish Euro 2016 final defeat from their minds in Russia. With a squad the envy of a lot of teams it's hard not to see them reaching the latter stages. Antoine Griezmann is the superstar but around him is a team littered with trophies. Denmark lead by talismanic Tottenham star Christian Eriksen will be a solid challenger to France in the group. Australia have become a solid qualifier but have flattered to deceive. Tim Cahil still being the stand out attraction at 38 years old tells it's own story. Peru arrive back at the World Cup after a 36 year absence and will have that free abandon that the likes of 2002 South Korea (ok yeah they were co hosts) and 2010 Uruguay had. No expectation.
My Prediction for Group C
- France
- Denmark
- Australia
- Peru
Group D
Similarly to Group C, Group D provides one outstanding team and three that could follow them through. Argentina lead by the man many consider the best of the modern age and the best possibly ever. Lionel Messi has it all, except a World Cup. If he is to push aside the critics in his homeland he needs to lift that trophy in a months time. It's not all on him, Higuain, Dybala and Aguero make up La Albiceleste's attack. It's a mouth-watering list when you think about it. It's hard to envisage a scenario where they don't win this group. Iceland make their World Cup debut two years after impressing at the Euros. For what it's worth, no bitter England comments from me. Iceland have been building for years and could actually have been in Brazil only to be thwarted in the play offs. It might be a tough ask to get through the group but rest assured if they do don't underestimate them. Croatia for years have threatened to really do something at a World Cup, this group of players is talented and with Real Madrid's midfield maestro Luka Modric pulling the strings you can be sure of chances being created. Nigeria make up the group and the super eagles may represent Africa's best chances of that illusive world cup winner. Several familiar names are in the squad and it's fair to say there is quality throughout it. A tough test for anyone who will face them.
My Prediction for Group D
- Argentina
- Croatia
- Iceland
- Nigeria
Group E
Group E sees Brazil one of the tournament favourites face Switzerland, Serbia and Costa Rica. The five time world champions will be eager to add a sixth crown after missing the opportunity to do so in their own back yard. I felt very sorry for them watching that 7-1 defeat to Germany. I wanted them to win that world cup. The World Cup needs Brazil, their exciting football and iconic yellow shirts are what the world cup is all about. This bunch of players has the capability to win it that much is for sure. Can they live up to the billing is another matter. Firmino, Jesus, Neymar, Coutinho, take your pick of who will be the star man. Switzerland offer a tough test, a strong side who showed flashes of quality at both the World Cup in 2014 and Euro 2016 but now possibly it's time to go one better. They've been high in the rankings for a long time now and with players such as Breel Embolo and Xherdan Shaqiri there is a hope they can do something. Serbia missed the last three major tournaments but are back now and will hope they can impress. A lot will depend on the form of Newcastle/Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic and look out for Benfica's Luka Jovic as well. Costa Rica were arguably the story of the 2014 tournament, predicted to finish bottom of the group in 2014 they won it, knocking Italy and England out in doing so. It will be a tough ask to repeat that but never say never
My Prediction for Group E
- Brazil
- Switzerland
- Serbia
- Costa Rica
Group F
Group F throws up another likely interesting tussle for 2nd spot. Of course Germany are the holders and favourites to take the crown again. They have it all, strength in depth, excellent management, play decent football and have a ruthless will to win and belief. It's difficult not to envisage them picking up that trophy. Alongside them in the group are perennial qualifiers Mexico. There's something about Mexico that I really like. They always seem to be in games and have got through the group in each of the last 6 World Cups. I personally would enjoy seeing them go on and get a bit further this time around. They have a good squad, maybe now is there time. Sweden come into the World Cup after a 12 year absence and without Zlatan Ibrahimovic represent a slightly different prospect than with him. Still it's a good team packed with solid players, if not outstanding in quality it's still got plenty of experience. South Korea round off the group and this will be their 9th World Cup finals in a row. A great achievement already and will be keen to show their own quality. Son Heung-min is the star man in a team that on it's day can beat the big boys.
My Prediction for Group F
- Germany
- Mexico
- Sweden
- South Korea
Group G
Group G brings us to England's group. My attitude to the England national team over the last few years has gone from a mild interest with scepticism to almost completely no interest with a feeling of I'd rather watch almost anyone else. Don't get me wrong I want England to do well and I do actually like Gareth Southgate as a man. He's shown some qualities that we have lacked where he has brought younger players into the team and has also insisted on the joined up thinking between U21 level and below and senior level. These are all positive steps in the right direction. As for the present team, England are simply not in that top level of teams anymore and the aim of winning this world cup is vastly beyond them. Belgium will be the favourites for the group and a lot has been made of their golden generation. A talented squad with several players who play in England will make for an interesting last group game for both, a likely decider for first place. Panama will like the likes of Iceland, Iran and Peru no real expectation. Tunisia are not a side to be taken lightly, they will provide a decent test for England's opener.
My Prediction for Group G
- Belgium
- England
- Tunisia
- Panama
Group H
The final group gives us in my opinion one of the most intriguing. A fairly even group and a good mix of countries from different parts of the globe. Colombia will go into it as slight favourites. They were one of the stories of 2014 and with James Rodriguez they have a player who can change a game in the blink of an eye. Poland also have an outstanding talent who plies his trade at Bayern Munich. Robert Lewandowski scores goals for fun and may just be the difference for Poland in the group and possibly beyond. I was pleased to see Senegal qualify, I have fond memories of 2002 where they shocked France in their opener. It's good to see them back and with a strong side with star man Sadio Mane coming off the back of another great season, they will be ones to watch. Finally rounding off the group is Japan, a side you always feel is capable of something. They've become a main stay of qualification and will be hoping to go one better than last time around in Brazil.
My Prediction for Group H
- Colombia
- Poland
- Senegal
- Japan
Knockout Stages
The good thing about the World Cup is the fact the structure allows you to actually make a full prediction. Even with the Euros now you need to know who will finish 3rd and then work out who they will play which can take forever. From my group predictions it gives us these last 16 ties with the side I think will progress written next to them;
Uruguay V Portugal -Portugal
France V Croatia -France
Brazil V Mexico -Brazil
Belgium Poland -Belgium
Spain V Egypt Spain
Argentina v Denmark -Argentina
Germany V Switzerland -Germany
Colombia V England -England
This leaves a quarter final line up of;
Portugal V France -France
Brazil V Belgium -Brazil
Spain V Argentina -Spain
Germany V England -Germany
This would set up these semi finals;
France V Brazil -Brazil
Spain V Germany -Germany
So the World Cup third place play off would see;
France V Spain -France
Leaving the showpiece itself a re run of the semi four years ago.
Brazil V Germany -Germany
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A German win in my opinion is on the cards again.
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It may sound like a boring prediction but it's the one I'm going with. Germany had it all, a good manager, a squad packed with talent, a winning mentality and crucially winning experience. Not only the World Cup four years ago but the confederations cup and U21 Euros last summer as well. It's difficult to find any faults. Possible over confidence maybe but aside from that nothing.
The Golden Boot, Player of the Tournament and Ones to watch.
Predicting the golden boot winner is always difficult, there are so many options. Ronaldo, Messi, Aguero, Suarez and Muller. All of which are good options however slightly left field I'm going to say Manchester City's Gabriel Jesus. After a season where he's been part of a record breaking City side he comes into the World Cup in decent form. His record of 9 goals in 15 games for Brazil is impressive and given I've predicted his side will be runners up there's a good chance he'll play a fair bit. As for the overall player of the tournament I'll say Germany's Toni Kroos. A mainstay of Real Madrid's European conquering of the last few years, Kroos is arguably the best midfielder in the World at the moment and what better way than to seal that crown than winning the World Cup. Names to look out for, Serbia's Sergej Milinkovic-Savic has been attracting a lot of attention recently. Germany's Timo Werner is coming into the World Cup after two very good season's for RP Leipzig. Denmark's Pione Sisto and Kasper Dolberg both catch the eye, the Danes are one of a number of teams with dark hoarse qualities. All in all it should be a very good tournament and a good watch.
Thanks for reading
Tom
